The First Half 2016: Supply, Demand, and the Spiking Dollar on Brexit Fears

The rise in oil prices during the first half of 2016 was driven by two of the most basic economic forces: supply and demand.

First, in May, the price of both WTI and Brent hit a six-month peak when the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasted a drop in production of 200,000 barrels daily during the last six months of this year.

Second, not only was expected supply dropping but expected demand was rising. Several months ago, the IEA reported demand projections rising in 2016. The IEA estimates that worldwide demand will increase by 100,000 barrels daily this year as well. The driver? Largely China and India, two robust emerging markets.

Falling supply and rising demand have been bullish for oil prices in 2016.

The first half also had the U.K.’s vote to leave the European Union in late June. Moors terms the Brexit decision “the biggest single event to jolt markets in decades.” Why? In the short term, it sent markets – oil, stock, and currency – down steeply on uncertainty fears.

In the case of oil specifically, though, the flight to a safe haven in the U.S. led to an increase in the U.S. dollar. Because oil is denominated in dollars, it becomes more expensive to overseas buyers when the dollar advances. That can restrict their demand going forward.

While Moors believes that the two-year negotiations between the U.K. and the EU will continue to exert a downward drag on oil prices, any weakness will be offset by bullish factors later in the year and into 2017.

Three Factors That Will Drive Oil Prices Higher

For the rest of 2016, Moors expects WTI crude oil to trade in a range of around $40 per barrel minimum and rise to a range of $60 per barrel in 2017.
Despite that forecast, the markets have seen near-term fluctuations. In late July, markets reacted to a drop in oil prices. WTI crude oil price fell to $42.41 per barrel, the lowest price since mid-April, when it closed at $39.78. Futures dropped 12.2%. The Brent crude price per barrel was down 11% in late July.

Why such a relatively steep decline? Some analysts are concerned about rising supplies of oil in the United States. You see, the Baker Hughes (NYSE: BHI) oil rig count has been climbing. During July, BHI reported that active rigs were increasing for the four straight weeks.

A rise in rig count during 2015 led to a drop in crude oil prices of 50%. Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) estimates that supply outside of the OPEC producers will climb this year – and that crude prices per barrel will bottom at $35 in 2016.

Moors cautions that the pullback in oil prices is a normal market fluctuation, and oil won’t fall as low as Morgan Stanley predicts.

He cites three reason that support his $50 per barrel price range this year – and a rise to a $60 range for WTI per barrel in 2017.

The first bullish factor for oil prices is peaking worldwide output.

In the early part of the year, output by OPEC hit more than 32 million barrels daily, its highest level in nearly two decades. Output in Russia reached nearly 11 million barrels, the highest level in three decades.

Moors observes that production in the U.S. from shale is reaching a high as well. You see, tight oil wells and shale oil wells pump the majority of their production within the first year and a half.

According to Moors, production of oil by shale drilling, though, becomes expensive. As a result, oil companies are moving to a type of well dubbed “drilled but uncompleted” (DUC). As the term implies, a DUC hasn’t reached its output peak. They still have oil, so oil companies are going back to them.

Why? They are more affordable than other methods of obtaining oil.
DUCs are slowly being used to supplant shale as an oil supply source. The oil companies don’t want more supply flooding the market.

As Moors puts it, “an increase in DUCs doesn’t mean we are approaching some major boost in production. But they also represent another element restraining the slide in prices.”

The second factor supporting a bullish oil price forecast is falling supply due to the financial situation at oil companies. They can’t afford to keep wells working when their product commands just $46 per barrel at the market.

Over the past two years, supply has been on a steady downward march – which Moors estimates will not reverse soon. According to the BHI rig count, active U.S. oil rigs totaled 337 in late June. At its peak two years ago? Rigs totaled approximately 1,600. That’s a whopping decline of nearly 79%.
Because oil rigs can cost between $500,000 to $3 million to operate and maintain, it is not cost-effective to keep them going until crude oil starts to hit $65 per barrel. Production may ramp up when it hits that level. Most companies need WTI crude to be close to $70 per barrel before they hit reasonable profitability.

So, the BHI rig count shows that the oil companies are shutting down more and more oil rigs. Essentially, we will see a dropping count until supply is constrained enough to drive prices higher.

Three Reasons Why Orthopedic Rehab Is Helpful

If you have ever had a surgery or serious injury, you know that it can be physically exhausting to recover properly. Most surgeries or major traumas require specific exercises and protocols. Orthopedic rehab is designed to deal specifically with injuries involving the musculoskeletal system. Issues in this field often include sports accidents, such as torn tendons and broken bones, tumors, and even infections. Following a recovery protocol specific to your injury and operation can help you to recover faster and more fully. Here are three reasons why.

Regain Function

After a serious injury or medical condition, our bodies often attempt to compensate for the trauma. For example, when a person limps, it is an attempt to take pressure off of a damaged body part. As a result of this natural compensation, the muscles and tendons surrounding the injured area can often weaken or atrophy from lack of use. This is further exacerbated following an operation. Orthopedic rehab helps the patient focus on strengthening the repaired body part and the area surrounding it. Without a directed recovery, most patients will continue to favor the injury, resulting in a lifelong limp, hitch, crook, or other physical abnormality.

Prevent Injury

As discussed above, the human body will tend to protect a damaged area by shifting the workload to other limbs, tendons, or muscles. Even after the area has been surgically repaired, the human body will continue trying to shield it. If the body does not re-learn that the damaged body part is okay, the overuse of other areas could result in further accidents. This example is often seen in athletes with an injured leg or foot; in an attempt to protect the weakened area, the athlete puts more force into their cuts, pivots, or jumps with their good leg. This can result in damage to the strong leg or foot if too much strain is placed on it. Conversely, if the surgically repaired area is never re-strengthened, it is more apt to suffer the same failure as before through normal use. Orthopedic rehab can help patients regain the strength lost through trauma and an operation.

Avoid Surgery

In some cases, orthopedic rehab can help patients suffering from physical trauma avoid an operation altogether. This can be achieved through directed exercises or by altering how a person performs physical tasks. In the case of a weak back, a therapist might work with the patient on how to sit, stand, sleep, and bend over. The proper use of the back, coupled with specific exercises designed to strengthen the weakened area, can reduce the amount of pain a patient is feeling. In many cases, this approach can entirely solve any issues a patient is having, rendering surgery unnecessary.

In conclusion, orthopedic rehab can be helpful in resolving a number of physical ailments. Patients should wholeheartedly work with their physical therapists for a better recovery experience.

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